A31 GLOBAL BURDEN OF HOSPITALIZATION FOR PERSONS WITH IBD IN THE 21ST CENTURY: TIME TREND ANALYSES
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) exceeds 0.3% in N. America, Europe, and Oceania, but many Westernized nations report decreasing hospitalization rates (HR) following the advent of biologics. However, IBD incidence is rapidly rising in newly industrialized countries in Asia and S. America, which may correspond to increasing HRs in those regions. Analyze global time trends of all-cause hospitalizations for persons with IBD. We conducted a systematic review of MedLine and Embase (2000–2018) to identify population-based studies reporting HRs after the year 2000 with at least five years of data. WorldBank census data were used for population values. Log-linear models were used to analyze time trends and to calculate average annual percentage change (AAPC), with associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). 7,782 studies were identified; 663 underwent full-text review; data were extracted from 52; and, 17 underwent analysis. HRs were analyzed in 33 countries (Table 1). In N. America, HRs are decreasing in Canada (AAPC:−2.4; 95%CI:−2.6,−2), but increasing in the USA (AAPC:2.4; 95%CI:1.5,3.3). HRs were also divergent in Europe with countries reporting decreasing (eg. Sweden, AAPC:−2.4; 95%CI:−2.9,−1.8), increasing (eg. Germany, AAPC:2.1; 95%CI:1.8,2.5), and stable (eg. France, AAPC:−0.1; 95%CI:−0.4,0.2) rates. In contrast, HRs were rapidly increasing in Asia (eg. China, AAPC:16.4; 95%CI:11.8,21.2) and S. America (eg. Mexico, AAPC:3.7; 95%CI:2.8,4.6) (Table 1). Despite advances in IBD management since 2000, HRs are divergent throughout the Western world with over half of countries reporting increases. Newly industrialized countries in Asia and S. America are experiencing rapidly rising HRs, which is contributing to an increasing burden on global healthcare systems. Table 1: Hospital discharge rates by country since 2000 with average annual percent change (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). *p < 0.05 CIHR
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.014 | 0.024 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".