Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Cardiovascular Mortality in a Large-Scale Prospective Study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
There are suggestions that ground-level ozone (O3) may be associated with adverse cardiovascular impacts, including death. However, results from long-term epidemiological studies are scarce and confounded by PM2.5. This work seeks to further examine the association between long-term ambient O3 exposure and both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in an extended analysis of the Cancer Prevention Study-II (CPS-II). Nearly 1.2 million CPS-II participants were enrolled in 1982 and followed-up through 2004. Estimates of mean annual 8-hour maximum O3 concentrations based on a combination of data from central monitors and photochemical models and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations from a national-level hybrid land use regression (LUR) and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) interpolation model for the years 2002-2004 were linked to the home address of study participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine associations between all-cause and cause-specific mortality. A total of 669,047 CPS-II participants were retained for analysis following necessary exclusions in which 237,201 all-cause deaths were observed. In single-pollutant models, and in models adjusting for PM2.5, there were significant positive associations between O3 and all-cause, circulatory (plus diabetes), and respiratory mortality with hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence intervals (CI)) from multi-pollutant models of 1.020 (1.009-1.030), 1.027 (1.011-1.043), and 1.124 (1.085-1.164) observed per each 10 unit increase in O3 concentrations respectively. Findings suggest a role of long-term ambient O3 exposure in both cardiovascular and respiratory mortality.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it