Informe de situación: Actividad gripal en la temporada 2018-19 Evaluación de riesgo hasta semana 03/2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[ES] La epidemia gripal 2018-19 se ha iniciado en Espana en la semana 01/2019, tres semanas mas tarde que en las dos temporadas previas, pero en el rango de las temporadas post-pandemicas previas. La incidencia de gripe se asocia de forma casi exclusiva a la circulacion de virus de la gripe tipo A. Aunque la proporcion entre subtipos A(H1N1)pdm09 y A(H3N2) es similar, la tendencia de las ultimas semanas indica un aumento en la proporcion del primero. Los datos de vigilancia en hospitales senalan una distribucion similar por tipo/subtipo de virus. Si bien el grupo de mayores de 65 anos es el mayoritario (53%), este porcentaje es inferior al que se puede observar en aquellas temporadas en las que predomina A(H3N2) y se parece mas a aquellas temporadas en las que predomino A(H1N1)pdm09. Hasta el momento, la epidemia gripal 2018-19 presenta un nivel bajo de transmisibilidad en todos los grupos de edad. El impacto ocasionado en la poblacion espanola se estima medio, en terminos de tasa de hospitalizacion y bajo en terminos de excesos de mortalidad por todas las causas. Ambos indicadores, asi como la gravedad clinica de la enfermedad, se seguiran evaluando en las semanas proximas de la epidemia gripal. Las estimaciones preliminares de EV antigripal de esta temporada en Canada senalan un valor de EV frente a A(H1N1)pdm09 por encima del 70%, en consonancia con datos preliminares de la red Europea I-MOVE. La EV antigripal frente a A(H3N2) es suboptima hasta el momento. Sin embargo, se han estimado valores moderados de EV antigripal frente a todos los virus A en grupos recomendados de vacunacion, lo que refuerza la recomendacion oficial de vacunacion antigripal en estos grupos de riesgo de complicaciones por gripe. En definitiva, las caracteristicas de la epidemia 2018-19 hasta el momento se mueven en un patron intermedio entre las temporadas de A(H1N1)pdm09 y las de A(H3N2), de forma que segun derive la circulacion mayoritaria de uno u otro virus, cabe esperar que predominen unas u otras caracteristicas. [EN] Influenza activity in Spain started this 2018-19 season in week 01/2019, three weeks later than in the previous two seasons, but in the range of the previous post-pandemic seasons. So far, the influenza season 2018-19 is characterized by the predominant circulation of type A. Although both A(H1N1) pdm09 and A(H3N2) subtypes are co-circulating in similar proportions, the trend of the last weeks indicates an increase in the proportion of the first. Surveillance data in hospitals indicate a similar distribution by type/subtype. Although 53% were adults 65 years of age and older, this percentage is lower than that observed in seasons associated with A(H3N2) predominance, and more similar to those seasons in which A(H1N1)pdm09 predominated. So far, the influenza season 2018-19 has a low level of transmissibility in all age groups. The impact caused in the Spanish population is estimated as “medium”, in terms of hospitalization rates, and “low” in terms of all causes excess mortality. Both indicators, as well as the clinical severity of the disease, will continue to be evaluated in the next few weeks of the flu epidemic. Preliminary estimates of the effectiveness of influenza vaccine this season in Canada indicate good vaccine effectiveness (VE) (above 70%), in line with preliminary data from the European I-MOVE network. The VE against influenza A(H3N2) viruses is suboptimal so far. However, moderate values of VE have been estimated against all A viruses in recommended groups of vaccination, which reinforces the official recommendation of influenza vaccination in these risk groups of complications due to influenza. In short, the characteristics of the influenza season 2018-19 so far move in an intermediate pattern between the A(H1N1)pdm09 seasons and those with A(H3N2) predominance. It is expected that some or other characteristics will prevail depending on the predominance of the circulation of one or the other virus.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.017 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".