Land use change impacts on European heat and drought: remote land-atmosphere feedbacks mitigated locally by shallow groundwater
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Heat and drought are projected to increase globally but may be mitigated or exacerbated by land use/land cover (LULC) change. Here, we show that remote land-atmosphere feedbacks caused by historical European LULC change led to widespread changes in the energy and water balances, drought, and heat. Using a continental-scale bedrock-to-atmosphere model, we find that LULC change following the Soviet Union collapse and European Union formation may have substantially increased cloud cover and decreased incoming shortwave radiation in western Europe, even in locations where LULC did not change. These changes to the water and energy balances had spatially heterogeneous impacts on drought and heat, including drying in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe regions. The response of the water and energy balances to remote feedbacks was lessened in areas with shallow groundwater, indicating that local- and continental-scale responses to LULC change are influenced by the coupling between the subsurface, land surface, and atmosphere.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".