A year of terror and a century of reflection: perspectives on the great influenza pandemic of 1918–1919
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In the spring of 1918, the "War to End All Wars", which would ultimately claim more than 37 million lives, had entered into its final year and would change the global political and economic landscape forever. At the same time, a new global threat was emerging and would become one of the most devastating global health crises in recorded history. MAIN TEXT: The 1918 H1N1 pandemic virus spread across Europe, North America, and Asia over a 12-month period resulting in an estimated 500 million infections and 50-100 million deaths worldwide, of which ~ 50% of these occurred within the fall of 1918 (Emerg Infect Dis 12:15-22, 2006, Bull Hist Med 76:105-115, 2002). However, the molecular factors that contributed to the emergence of, and subsequent public health catastrophe associated with, the 1918 pandemic virus remained largely unknown until 2005, when the characterization of the reconstructed pandemic virus was announced heralding a new era of advanced molecular investigations (Science 310:77-80, 2005). In the century following the emergence of the 1918 pandemic virus we have landed on the Moon, developed the electronic computer (and a global internet), and have eradicated smallpox. In contrast, we have a largely remedial knowledge and understanding of one of the greatest scourges in recorded history. CONCLUSION: Here, we reflect on the 1918 influenza pandemic, including its emergence and subsequent rapid global spread. In addition, we discuss the pathophysiology associated with the 1918 virus and its predilection for the young and healthy, the rise of influenza therapeutic research following the pandemic, and, finally, our level of preparedness for future pandemics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.011 | 0.021 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.011 | 0.015 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| Research integrity | 0.009 | 0.023 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".