Expert-augmented machine learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Machine learning is proving invaluable across disciplines. However, its success is often limited by the quality and quantity of available data, while its adoption is limited by the level of trust afforded by given models. Human vs. machine performance is commonly compared empirically to decide whether a certain task should be performed by a computer or an expert. In reality, the optimal learning strategy may involve combining the complementary strengths of humans and machines. Here, we present expert-augmented machine learning (EAML), an automated method that guides the extraction of expert knowledge and its integration into machine-learned models. We used a large dataset of intensive-care patient data to derive 126 decision rules that predict hospital mortality. Using an online platform, we asked 15 clinicians to assess the relative risk of the subpopulation defined by each rule compared to the total sample. We compared the clinician-assessed risk to the empirical risk and found that, while clinicians agreed with the data in most cases, there were notable exceptions where they overestimated or underestimated the true risk. Studying the rules with greatest disagreement, we identified problems with the training data, including one miscoded variable and one hidden confounder. Filtering the rules based on the extent of disagreement between clinician-assessed risk and empirical risk, we improved performance on out-of-sample data and were able to train with less data. EAML provides a platform for automated creation of problem-specific priors, which help build robust and dependable machine-learning models in critical applications.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.006 | 0.032 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".