Deep learning in head & neck cancer outcome prediction
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Traditional radiomics involves the extraction of quantitative texture features from medical images in an attempt to determine correlations with clinical endpoints. We hypothesize that convolutional neural networks (CNNs) could enhance the performance of traditional radiomics, by detecting image patterns that may not be covered by a traditional radiomic framework. We test this hypothesis by training a CNN to predict treatment outcomes of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, based solely on their pre-treatment computed tomography image. The training (194 patients) and validation sets (106 patients), which are mutually independent and include 4 institutions, come from The Cancer Imaging Archive. When compared to a traditional radiomic framework applied to the same patient cohort, our method results in a AUC of 0.88 in predicting distant metastasis. When combining our model with the previous model, the AUC improves to 0.92. Our framework yields models that are shown to explicitly recognize traditional radiomic features, be directly visualized and perform accurate outcome prediction.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".