Nonparametric Kernel Regression Using Complex Survey Data
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Applied econometric analysis is often performed using data collected from large-scale surveys. These surveys use complex sampling plans in order to reduce costs and increase the estimation efficiency for subgroups of the population. These sampling plans result in unequal inclusion probabilities across units in the population. The purpose of this paper is to derive the asymptotic properties of a design-based nonparametric regression estimator under a combined inference framework. The nonparametric regression estimator considered is the local constant estimator. This work contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it derives the asymptotic properties for the multivariate mixed-data case, including the asymptotic normality of the estimator. Second, I use least squares cross-validation for selecting the bandwidths for both continuous and discrete variables. I run Monte Carlo simulations designed to assess the finite-sample performance of the design-based local constant estimator versus the traditional local constant estimator for three sampling methods, namely, simple random sampling, exogenous stratification and endogenous stratification. Simulation results show that the estimator is consistent and that efficiency gains can be achieved by weighting observations by the inverse of their inclusion probabilities if the sampling is endogenous.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it