Pertussis vaccine effectiveness in a frequency matched population-based case-control Canadian Immunization Research Network study in Ontario, Canada 2009–2015
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Resurgences of pertussis have occurred in several high-income countries, often linked to waning of immunity from acellular pertussis vaccines. The degree of waning observed has varied by study design and setting. In Ontario, pertussis has not shown a substantial resurgence in the past decade. The routine immunization schedule comprises three priming doses in infancy, toddler and pre-school doses, and an adolescent dose at 14-16 years of age. METHODS: We estimated pertussis vaccine effectiveness (VE) through a case-control study of 1335 cases statutorily reported to public health in Ontario and occurring between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2015, compared with 5340 randomly selected population controls, frequency-matched by age, primary-care provider and year of diagnosis. Pertussis cases met provincial confirmed or probable case definitions. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate crude and adjusted odds ratios (aOR). RESULTS: VE against pertussis was sustained between 92% (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 88-95%) in 2-3 year olds and 90% (95%CI: 80-95%) in 8-9 year olds, but fell rapidly to 49% (95%CI: 2-73%) in children 12-13 years of age. VE following the teenage booster given at 14-16 years in Ontario reached 76% (95%CI: 52-88%) in 14-16 year olds and 78% (95%CI: -31 to 96%) in those 16-22 years old. For children who were up-to-date with the immunization schedule, VE declined from 87% (95%CI: 84-90%) during the first year to 74% (95%CI: 63-82%) after 8 or more years following their last dose of immunization. CONCLUSIONS: VE is high during the first decade of life but then falls rapidly. Protection is not fully restored by the teenage booster. Our findings are consistent with the localized outbreaks we observe in high school children and underline the importance of additional policies to protect infants.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".