Spillover Effects of US QE and QE Tapering on African and Middle Eastern Stock Indices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we study spillover effects on the stock markets of six African and nine Middle Eastern emerging economies before, during, and after the implementation of unconventional monetary policies by the United States Federal Reserve (US Fed). Weekly data covering the pre-quantitative easing (pre-QE) period, the three phases of QE, and the QE-tapering period were adopted. The methodologies employed here for detecting dual causality were as follows: classical, dynamic, and time-varying Granger causality tests. The results indicate that the Fed’s non-conventional actions weakened the Fed’s monetary policies’ impact on the stock indices of these emerging countries. Interestingly, there is evidence that two African and three Middle Eastern countries—all different according to each of the specifications used in the methodology—were affected by the tapering of unconventional US monetary practices.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".