Cross-border Purchasing of Cigarettes among Smokers in Six European Countries: Findings from the EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe Surveys
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction The availability of lower-cost cigarettes provides price-sensitive smokers with incentives to purchase cheaper cigarettes in order to minimize their financial costs of continuing to smoke. This study estimates the prevalence of and factors associated with cross-border purchasing of cheaper cigarettes among nationally representative samples of smokers from Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Spain (n = 6,011). Material and Methods The primary outcome was purchasing cheaper out-of-country cigarettes in the last six months. The prevalence of cross-border purchasing was estimated by country and residential location, defined as (a) living in regions bordering a country where the cost of the most popular price category brand of cigarettes was at least €1/pack lower than in smokers' home countries, (b) living in regions bordering a country with similar cigarette prices, and (c) living in regions not bordering other countries. Weighted multivariable logistic regression tested differences in purchasing cheaper out-of-country cigarettes by country and residential location. Results Residential location was associated with purchasing cheaper out-of-country cigarettes in Germany and Poland (p < 0.05): 31% of German and 11% of Polish smokers living in regions bordering lower-price countries made such purchases in the last six months. Across all countries, smokers living in areas bordering lower-price countries had 4.21 times greater odds of purchasing cheaper out-of-country cigarettes compared to smokers living in non-border areas (95% CI: 2.39-7.42). Conclusions Tax harmonization policies that minimize cross-border price differentials can eliminate lower-priced alternatives for price-sensitive smokers.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it