Behavioural and neural interactions between objective and subjective performance in a Matching Pennies game
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract To examine the behavioural and neural interactions between objective and subjective performance during competitive decision-making, participants completed a Matching Pennies game where win-rates were fixed within three conditions ( win > lose, win = lose, win < lose ) and outcomes were predicted at each trial. Using random behaviour as the hallmark of optimal performance, we observed item ( heads ), contingency ( win-stay, lose-shift ) and combinatorial (HH, HT, TH, TT) biases across all conditions. Higher-quality behaviour represented by a reduction in combinatorial bias was observed during high win-rate exposure. In contrast, over-optimism biases were observed only in conditions where win rates were equal to, or less than, loss rates. At a group level, a neural measure of outcome evaluation (feedback-related negativity; FRN) indexed the binary distinction between positive and negative outcome. At an individual level, increased belief in successful performance accentuated FRN amplitude differences between wins and losses. Taken together, the data suggest that objective experiences of, or, subjective beliefs in, the predominance of positive outcomes are mutual attempts to self-regulate performance during competition. In this way, increased exposure to positive outcomes (real or imagined) help to weight the output of the more diligent and analytic System 2, relative to the impulsive and intuitive System 1.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".