A Case Study of Fishbone Sequential Diagram Application and ADREP Taxonomy Codification in Conventional ATM Incident Investigation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper aims to present the application of a fishbone sequential diagram in air traffic management (ATM) incident investigations performing as a key connection between safety occurrence analysis methodology (SOAM) and accident/incident data reporting (ADREP) approaches. SOAM analysis is focused on organizational cause detection; nevertheless, this detection of individual causes from a complete incident scenario presents a complex analysis, and even more, the chronological relationship between causes, which is lacking in SOAM, should be tracked for post-investigation analysis. The conventional fishbone diagram is useful for failure cause classification; however, we consider that this technique can also show its potential to establish temporal dependencies between causes, which are categorized and registered with ADREP taxonomy for future database creation. A loss of separation incident that occurred in the Edmonton area (Canada) is used as a case study to illustrate this methodology as well as the whole analysis process.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".