Marginal Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Ontario’s Electricity System and the Implications of Electric Vehicle Charging
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of electric vehicles (EVs) deployment, it is important to account for emissions from electricity generation. Since such emissions change according to temporal patterns of electricity generation and EV charging, this study operationalizes the concept of marginal emission factors (MEFs) and uses person-level travel activity data to simulate charging scenarios. Our study is set in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area in Ontario, Canada. After generating hourly MEFs using a multiple linear regression model, we estimated GHG emissions for EV charging at two EV penetration rates, 5% and 30%, and five charging scenarios: home, work and shopping, night, downtown vs suburb, and an optimal low emission charging scenario, matching charging time with the lowest available MEF. We observed that vehicle electrification substantially reduces GHG emissions, even when using MEFs that are up to seven times higher than average electricity emission factors. With Ontario's 2017 electricity generation mix, EVs achieve over 80% lower fuel cycle emissions compared with equivalent sets of gasoline vehicles. At 5% penetration, night charging nearly matches low emission charging, but night charging emissions increase with 30% EV penetration, suggesting a need for policy that can smooth out charging demand after midnight.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".