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Record W2936568671 · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1904.09024

When is a Prediction Knowledge?

2019· preprint· en· W2936568671 on OpenAlexaff
Alex Kearney, Patrick M. Pilarski

Bibliographic record

VenuearXiv (Cornell University) · 2019
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicReinforcement Learning in Robotics
Canadian institutionsUniversity of Alberta
Fundersnot available
KeywordsVariety (cybernetics)Computer scienceReinforcement learningValue (mathematics)Artificial intelligencePredictive valueBody of knowledgeWork (physics)Knowledge managementData scienceEpistemologyMachine learningEngineering

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Within Reinforcement Learning, there is a growing collection of research which aims to express all of an agent's knowledge of the world through predictions about sensation, behaviour, and time. This work can be seen not only as a collection of architectural proposals, but also as the beginnings of a theory of machine knowledge in reinforcement learning. Recent work has expanded what can be expressed using predictions, and developed applications which use predictions to inform decision-making on a variety of synthetic and real-world problems. While promising, we here suggest that the notion of predictions as knowledge in reinforcement learning is as yet underdeveloped: some work explicitly refers to predictions as knowledge, what the requirements are for considering a prediction to be knowledge have yet to be well explored. This specification of the necessary and sufficient conditions of knowledge is important; even if claims about the nature of knowledge are left implicit in technical proposals, the underlying assumptions of such claims have consequences for the systems we design. These consequences manifest in both the way we choose to structure predictive knowledge architectures, and how we evaluate them. In this paper, we take a first step to formalizing predictive knowledge by discussing the relationship of predictive knowledge learning methods to existing theories of knowledge in epistemology. Specifically, we explore the relationships between Generalized Value Functions and epistemic notions of Justification and Truth.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.012
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.057
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.012
Threshold uncertainty score0.064

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0120.057
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0020.001
Science and technology studies0.0020.013
Scholarly communication0.0060.027
Open science0.0020.003
Research integrity0.0040.006
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0070.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.071
GPT teacher head0.191
Teacher spread0.120 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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Same venuearXiv (Cornell University)Same topicReinforcement Learning in RoboticsFrench-language works237,207