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Record W2936661893 · doi:10.33607/elt.v1i9.240

Pasaulio eksporto dinaminė analizė ir prognozavimas

2018· article· en· W2936661893 on OpenAlex
Viktorija Tauraitė

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

aboutThe title or abstract carries a Canadian signal from the geographic lexicon.
no affNo Canadian affiliation: this work is invisible to an affiliation-only frame.
No Canadian affiliation. An affiliation-only frame, the usual design, would never have seen this work. It is one of the works that make the case for inverting the frame.

Bibliographic record

VenueLaisvalaikio tyrimai · 2018
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicEconomic and Business Development Strategies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsChinaContext (archaeology)International tradeCarry (investment)World economyOrder (exchange)Relevance (law)EconomicsPolitical scienceDevelopment economicsEconomyGeographyMacroeconomicsFinance

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Relevance of the research. The allocation of world export between countries, groups of countries is relevant not only at the theoretical level but at the practical level, too. Benefit of export is emphasized for both the economic growth of a country, development and individual entrepreneurs (Jatuliavičienė, 2009). The importance of the dynamic analysis of the World export can be justified on the basis of empirical research. For example, World Trade Organization (2015) analyses the key tendencies of international trade in 1995–2014, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2015) also investigates the key aspects of international trade, statistics, etc. In 2015, N. Halevi (2015) explores the characteristics of export, its volume, etc., between 20 OECD countries in 2007 and other research. Hence, it is important to continue the analysis of world export tendencies in the past, present and future. The object of the research is the world’s export. The problem of the research: how did the world’s export change in 11 countries, group of countries at pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods and what are the future perspectives in the context of export? The aim of the research is to carry out the analysis of the world’s export dynamics in 11 countries (EU 28, Russia, Canada, the United States, Mexico, Brazil, China (except Hong Kong), Japan, South Korea, India, Singapore) in 2 aspects: (1) time (pre-crisis (2002–2007), crisis (2008–2010) and post-crisis (2011– 2014) periods); (2) countries, group of countries. Furthermore, the aim is to provide a forecast of the world’s export in 2015. In order to achieve the aim, we formulated 3 main tasks of the research: 1) to present the methodology of the research, providing study limitations; 2) to carry out the world’s export dynamic analysis and present the forecast of it; 3) to summarize the main points of the dynamic analysis identifying the potential directions for future research. According to previous studies (e.g. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2015; World Trade Organization, 2015 et al.), this research is carried out by using two methods: comparative statistical analysis and forecast. The novelty of this research is related with the methodology of this research: the dynamic analysis is carried out in 2 ways: by the aspect of time (pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods); (2) by the aspect of countries, group of countries. The secondary data of Eurostat database (2002–2014) were used in this article. Outcomes and conclusions. It was found that the volume of the export was decreasing in post-crisis period and in the future (2015). The opposite trend (export was increasing) was observed in pre-crisis period. On the other hand, the world’s export was increasing in EU 28, Russia, South Korea, India, China, Brazil in 2002–2014. Moreover, it was found out that the world’s export was decreasing in Canada, USA, Mexico, Singapore and Japan in 2002–2014.Keywords: international trade, export, pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis periods, the forecast.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow), Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.462
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.007

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.039
GPT teacher head0.221
Teacher spread0.182 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it