Abstract 12: Wind Patterns are not Associated with Kawasaki Disease in Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduction: Previous wind pattern studies have suggested that the etiologic and/or triggering agent for Kawasaki disease (KD) originates from Central Asia and that westward tropospheric winds are associated with the incidence pattern in Japan. This hypothesis has not been formally tested elsewhere. Should it be correct, it follows that incidence patterns should be similarly associated with North/North-West winds in Canada. Methods: We queried the Canadian hospital discharge database (Canadian Institute for Health Information) for hospital admissions associated with a discharge diagnosis of KD from 2004 through 2011; only acute admissions were included. Hourly weather data, including wind direction, was obtained from 9 weather stations across Canada situated closest to clusters of cases. The number of new KD admissions per day and per weather station was calculated. Wind direction was divided in 8 different quadrants covering 45° regions starting with 0°. A Poisson regression model for count data, adjusted for repeated measures (9 measures per day) was used to determine whether wind patterns were associated with incident cases. A number of separate models were tested using theoretical incubation periods of 0, 7, 14 or 21 days. Results: A total of 3363 KD cases were assigned to one of 26,283 time/space periods for which wind direction was available. Wind direction was not associated with incidence patterns in any of the 4 incubation models: incubation time 0 day (global wind pattern effect chi-square: 4.28, p=0.75). 7 days (chi-square: 5.08, p=0.65), 14 days (chi-square: 7.32, p=0.29) or 21 days (chi-square: 4.74, p=0.69). Focusing on North/North-West wind patterns also failed to show a significant association in all models: incubation time 0 day (+0.0021 (0.0151) cases/day, p=0.89), 7 days (-0.0071 (0.0142) cases/day, p=0.62), 14 days (+0.0009 (0.0148) cases/day, p=0.95) or 21 days (+0.0073 (0.0156) cases/day, p=0.64). Results were similar when stratifying Eastern vs. Western Canada and when each weather station was considered separately. Conclusions: Wind patterns were not found to be associated with incident KD cases in Canada. It is unclear if the reported association is specific to Japan or an ecologic fallacy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".