Physiological acclimation and persistence of ectothermic species under extreme heat events
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim To test if physiological acclimation can buffer species against increasing extreme heat due to climate change. Location Global. Time period 1960 to 2015. Major taxa studied Amphibians, arthropods, brachiopods, cnidarians, echinoderms, fishes, molluscs, reptiles. Methods We draw together new and existing data quantifying the warm acclimation response in 319 species as the acclimation response ratio (ARR): the increase in upper thermal limit per degree increase in experimental temperature. We develop worst‐case scenario climate projections to calculate the number of years and generations gained by ARR until loss of thermal safety. We further compute a vulnerability score that integrates across variables estimating exposure to climate change and species‐specific tolerance through traits, including physiological plasticity, generation time and latitudinal range extent. Results ARR is highly variable, but with marked differences across taxa, habitats and latitude. Polar terrestrial arthropods show high ARRs [95% upper confidence limit (UCL95%) = 0.68], as do some polar aquatic invertebrates that were acclimated for extended durations (ARR > 0.4). While this physiological plasticity buys 100s of years until thermal safety is lost, combination with long generation times leads to decreased potential for evolutionary adaptation. Additionally, 27% of marine polar invertebrates have no capacity for acclimation and reptiles and amphibians have minimal ARR (UCL95% = 0.16). Low physiological plasticity, long generations times and restricted latitudinal ranges combine to distinguish reptiles, amphibians and polar invertebrates as being highly vulnerable amongst ectotherms. Main conclusions In some taxa the combined effects of acclimation capacity and generation time can provide 100s of years and generations before thermal safety is lost. The accuracy of assessments of vulnerability to climate change will be improved by considering multiple aspects of species’ biology that, in combination may increase persistence under extreme heat events, and increase the probability for evolutionary rescue.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it