Recent summer warming in northwestern Canada exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Eastern Beringia is one of the few Western Arctic regions where full Holocene climate reconstructions are possible. However, most full Holocene reconstructions in Eastern Beringia are based either on pollen or midges, which show conflicting early Holocene summer temperature histories. This discrepancy precludes understanding the factors that drove past (and potentially future) climate change and calls for independent proxies to advance the debate. We present a ~13.6 ka summer temperature reconstruction in central Yukon, part of Eastern Beringia, using precipitation isotopes in syngenetic permafrost. The reconstruction shows that early Holocene summers were consistently warmer than the Holocene mean, as supported by midges, and a thermal maximum at ~7.6-6.6 ka BP. This maximum was followed by a ~6 ka cooling, and later abruptly reversed by industrial-era warming leading to a modern climate that is unprecedented in the Holocene context and exceeds the Holocene thermal maximum by +1.7 ± 0.7 °C.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".