Vulnérabilité des tanières du renard arctique aux aléas géologiques reliés aux changements climatiques
Bibliographic record
Abstract
RESUME: Les changements climatiques augmentent les risques d’alterations severes des habitats essentiels de nombreuses especes animales, surtout dans l’Arctique. Le renard arctique (Vulpes lagopus) utilise des tanieres comme refuges contre les grands froids et les predateurs. Ces tanieres, creusees dans la couche superieure du pergelisol (couche active), sont essentielles pour l’elevage des jeunes et sont reutilisees d’une generation a l’autre. Nous avons teste l’hypothese selon laquelle, en raison du rechauffement climatique, l’augmentation de la frequence des aleas geologiques comme le tassement au degel, les mouvements de masse et l’erosion thermique est une menace serieuse a la stabilite de ces tanieres. Sur l’Ile Bylot (Nunavut, Canada), nous avons developpe un indice de vulnerabilite qualitatif des tanieres a ces aleas. Cet indice a ete calcule a partir d’observations de terrain et de photos aeriennes obliques. Parmi les 106 tanieres etudiees, 14% ont ete classees comme tres vulnerables alors que 17% et 69% ont ete classees comme moderement ou faiblement vulnerables, respectivement. La vulnerabilite n’etait pas significativement reliee a la probabilite d’utilisation pour la reproduction. Les changements climatiques affectent donc les tanieres de renards arctiques, mais sans qu’ils soient un risque majeur pour l’espece a notre site d’etude. Notre recherche est la premiere a donner un apercu de l’impact des aleas geologiques relies aux changements climatiques sur l’ecologie du renard arctique. La methode proposee est flexible et pourrait etre appliquee, dans un cadre de conservation ou de recherche fondamentale, a d’autres sites ou d’autres especes qui dependent directement du pergelisol durant leur cycle vital. -- Mot(s) cle(s) en francais : Vulpes lagopus, vulnerabilite, aleas geomorphologiques, changements climatiques, pergelisol. -- ABSTRACT: Climate change increases the risk of severe alterations to essential habitats for wildlife species, especially in the Arctic. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) uses dens as shelters against cold temperatures and predators. These dens, which are needed for successful reproduction, are dug in the top layer of permafrost (active layer) and reused across multiple generations. We tested the hypothesis that due to climate change, the increasing frequency of geohazards like thaw settlement, mass movements, and thermal erosion is a serious threat for the long-term stability of Arctic fox dens. On Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), we developed a qualitative vulnerability index to geohazards for Arctic fox dens. The index was calculated from field observations and oblique aerial photographs. Of the 106 dens studied, 14% were classified as highly vulnerable while 17% and 69% had a moderate and low vulnerability, respectively. Vulnerability was not significantly related to the probability of use for reproduction. While climate change will impact Arctic fox reproductive structures, we conclude that this is not a major threat to the species in our study area. Our research is the first to provide insights into the climate-related geohazards potentially affecting Arctic fox ecology. The developed method is flexible and could be applied, for conservation or basic research, to other study sites or other species depending directly on permafrost for part of their life cycle. -- Mot(s) cle(s) en anglais : Vulpes lagopus, vulnerability, geohazards, climate change, permafrost.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".