Projecting the Potential Global Distribution of Carpomya vesuviana (Diptera: Tephritidae), Considering Climate Change and Irrigation Patterns
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The ber fruit fly Carpomya vesuviana Costa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is the most destructive pests of Ziziphus spp. Carpomya vesuviana infestation causes great economic losses. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model, and used the updated CliMond 30′ gridded resolution datasets within CLIMEX for the periods 1987–2016 and 2071–2100, representing historical and future climates, respectively, to predict the potential global distribution of the pest. Under the historical climate scenario, C. vesuviana had a wide climatically suitable distribution worldwide, from approximately 46° S to 50° N. Future climate change expanded the upper boundary of the potential distribution northward, and predicted that the pest would distribute approximately from 50° S to 60° N. Temperature was the primary determinant of the potential distribution of the pest among all driving variables. Irrigation was associated with a slight improvement in the climate favorability for the pest in some areas, including south-western North America, northern and southern Africa, and most of Oceania. The projections clarify the impacts of climate change on the potential global distribution of C. vesuviana, and are instructive for quarantine and management agencies for reducing economic damage caused by the fly and preventing expansion of C. vesuviana due to climate change.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it