Mendelian randomization analysis using mixture models for robust and efficient estimation of causal effects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Mendelian randomization (MR) has emerged as a major tool for the investigation of causal relationship among traits, utilizing results from large-scale genome-wide association studies. Bias due to horizontal pleiotropy, however, remains a major concern. We propose a novel approach for robust and efficient MR analysis using large number of genetic instruments, based on a novel spike-detection algorithm under a normal-mixture model for underlying effect-size distributions. Simulations show that the new method, MRMix, provides nearly unbiased or/and less biased estimates of causal effects compared to alternative methods and can achieve higher efficiency than comparably robust estimators. Application of MRMix to publicly available datasets leads to notable observations, including identification of causal effects of BMI and age-at-menarche on the risk of breast cancer; no causal effect of HDL and triglycerides on the risk of coronary artery disease; a strong detrimental effect of BMI on the risk of major depressive disorder.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.023 | 0.076 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".