Prognostic value of circulating tumour cells in limited-stage small-cell lung cancer: analysis of the concurrent once-daily versus twice-daily radiotherapy (CONVERT) randomised controlled trial
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The clinical significance of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) in limited-stage small-cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC) is not well defined. We report a planned exploratory analysis of the prevalence and prognostic value of CTCs in LS-SCLC patients enrolled within the phase III randomised CONVERT (concurrent once-daily versus twice-daily chemoradiotherapy) trial. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Baseline blood samples were enumerated for CTCs using CellSearch in 75 patients with LS-SCLC who were enrolled in the CONVERT trial and randomised between twice- and once-daily concurrent chemoradiation. Standard statistical methods were used for correlations of CTCs with clinical factors. Log-rank test and Cox regression analyses were applied to establish the associations of 2, 15 and 50 CTC thresholds with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). An optimal CTC count threshold for LS-SCLC was established. RESULTS: CTCs were detected in 60% (45/75) of patients (range 0-3750). CTC count thresholds of 2, 15 and 50 CTCs all significantly correlate with PFS and OS. An optimal CTC count threshold in LS-SCLC was established at 15 CTCs, defining 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' prognostic risk groups. The median OS in <15 versus ≥15 CTCs was 26.7 versus 5.9 m (P = 0.001). The presence of ≥15 CTCs at baseline independently predicted ≤1 year survival in 70% and ≤2 years survival in 100% of patients. CONCLUSION: We report the prognostic value of baseline CTC count in an exclusive LS-SCLC population at thresholds of 2, 15 and 50 CTCs. Specific to LS-SCLC, ≥15 CTCs was associated with worse PFS and OS independent of all other factors and predicted ≤2 years survival. These results may improve disease stratification in future clinical trial designs and aid clinical decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00433563.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".