Assessment of the Political Risk in a Country: a Practitioner’s View
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Political risk is inherent to foreign investment. It stems from either the government's or the political regime's instability, or restrictive and compelling governmental policies. To cope with this risk, two complementary instruments are used: risk assessment and deterrent measures. Taking into consideration South America, the author explains how the political risk assessment is realized through risks indexes, public or corporate: each carries its own criteria as shown here by the analysis of General Motors and Union Carbide methods of assessment. The author then discusses the means available to the investor to forecast and minimize the negative effects of the actualization of a political risk. He identifies two main categories of deterrent measures: business oriented strategies carried out by the investor or legal techniques of protection. Among the latter, the author analyses the stabilization and internationalization clauses; the security offered by certain bilateral or multilateral treaties to foreign investment; the guarantees agreed upon by organizations such as the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; the transfer of domicile of legal entities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".