INFLATION DYNAMICS AND THE OUTPUT‐INFLATION TRADE‐OFF: INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA EVIDENCE
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output‐inflation trade‐off using a single‐step approach in a panel data context. Previous empirical approaches focus on either cross‐country or country‐by‐country time‐series analyses. We employ a dynamic heterogeneous panel specification using an all‐encompassing estimation framework accounting for parameter heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, dynamics, and nonstationarity. Our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010. While inflation variability reduces the trade‐off for specific periods and country groups, an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the trade‐off. The findings are consistent with the New Keynesian view. ( JEL E31, E12, C23)
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it