Accidental Residential Fires in Calgary: A Theoretical Consideration
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Past research on fire incidence rates has identified strong associations between fire risk and sociodemographic and spatiotemporal factors but has often failed to place these factors within a theoretical framework. Borrowing from the field of criminology, I draw on the framework of routine activities theory (RAT) to explore the potential applicability of the “capable guardianship” aspect of RAT as it applies to fire incidents. I also examine how the relationship between fire incidents and capable guardianship is influenced by neighbourhood disorder. Using multivariate linear regression, I found that fire incidence rate in Calgary varies based on a community’s level of neighbourhood mobility and household size, as well as level of disorder. However, my findings did not support the hypothesis that fire rates are lower in areas characterized by increased presence of capable guardianship. I conclude that in order to examine mechanisms through which fire events are disrupted or prevented via the presence of capable guardians, research needs to focus on refining and understanding the measure of capable guardianship as it applies to fire incidents.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".