China’s Health Expenditure Projections To 2035: Future Trajectory And The Estimated Impact Of Reforms
Bibliographic record
Abstract
To understand the future trajectory of health expenditure in China if current trends continue and the estimated impact of reforms, this study projected health expenditure by disease and function from 2015 to 2035. Current health expenditure in China is projected to grow 8.4 percent annually, on average, in that period. The growth will mainly be driven by rapid increases in services per case of disease and unit cost, which respectively contribute 4.3 and 2.4 percentage points. Circulatory disease expenditure is projected to increase to 23.4 percent of health expenditure by 2035. The biggest challenge facing the Chinese health system is the projected rapid growth in inpatient services. Three percent of gross domestic product could be saved by 2035 by slowing the growth of inpatient service use from 8.2 percent per year in 2016 to 3.5 percent per year in 2035. Health expenditure in 2035 could be reduced by 3.5 percent if the smoking rate were cut in half and by 3.4 percent if the high blood pressure rate were cut by 25 percent. Future action in controlling health expenditure growth in China should focus on the high growth in inpatient services expenditure and interventions to reduce risk factors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".