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Record W2943537121

Has the Canadian Public Debt Been Too High? A Quantitative Assessment

2019· preprint· en· W2943537121 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Marco Cozzi

Bibliographic record

VenueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 2019
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFiscal Policy and Economic Growth
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDebtEconomicsMarket liquidityWelfareEarningsAsset (computer security)Monetary economicsPublic financeGovernment (linguistics)Public capitalPublic expenditurePublic economicsMacroeconomicsFiscal policyFinanceMarket economy
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This paper provides a quantitative analysis on whether the historically sizable public debt that the Canadian governments have accumulated might be close to its welfare maximizing level. As the public provision of liquidity to borrowing constrained individuals coupled with an increased supply of safe assets can be welfare improving, I consider a two-region model with an integrated asset market and incomplete insurancemarkets. The home country features a rich life-cycle setup, where the income dynamics rely on state of the art estimates obtained from previous studies using income tax returns. The main features are ex-ante labor earnings heterogeneity, both in levels and in growth rates, together with persistent and permanent shocks. When the public expenditure is assumed to be wasteful, I find that the optimal quantity of public debt for Canada is negative, meaning that the government should be a net saver. When the government, with a portion of its expenditure and consistent with the Canadian experience, finances valuable public goods the long-run public debt is still found to be inefficiently large, but closer to the welfare maximizing level.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.009
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.075
Threshold uncertainty score0.545

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.009
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0040.007
Science and technology studies0.0030.002
Scholarly communication0.0060.002
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0080.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.125
GPT teacher head0.326
Teacher spread0.201 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueRePEc: Research Papers in Economics→Same topicFiscal Policy and Economic Growth→French-language works237,207→