Rock avalanche mobility: The role of path material
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Rock avalanches are high velocity flows of fragmented rock that can dramatically alter landscapes, and impact people and infrastructure far from their source. These catastrophic events have been studied for over a century, however, a consensus regarding the mechanism(s) that govern their motion has yet to emerge. This work details the results of the back-analysis of 45 rock avalanche case histories using a semi-empirical runout model that simulates motion over 3D terrain. These simulations account for topographic effects and bulk basal shear resistance variation during motion. For a subset of the cases, we find that a volume-dependent mechanism appears to influence basal resistance in the source zone. However, once the material has vacated the source zone, our results suggest that the character of the path material strongly controls mobility, and appears to dominate over other, potentially volume-dependent, mechanisms that may also be at work. The results presented in this paper support the longstanding hypothesis that the interaction of flowing debris with the underlying substrate is an important consideration in rock avalanche runout prediction, and that this mechanism warrants further research.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it