The k conditional nearest neighbor algorithm for classification and class probability estimation
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
The k nearest neighbor (kNN) approach is a simple and effective nonparametric algorithm for classification. One of the drawbacks of kNN is that the method can only give coarse estimates of class probabilities, particularly for low values of k. To avoid this drawback, we propose a new nonparametric classification method based on nearest neighbors conditional on each class: the proposed approach calculates the distance between a new instance and the kth nearest neighbor from each class, estimates posterior probabilities of class memberships using the distances, and assigns the instance to the class with the largest posterior. We prove that the proposed approach converges to the Bayes classifier as the size of the training data increases. Further, we extend the proposed approach to an ensemble method. Experiments on benchmark data sets show that both the proposed approach and the ensemble version of the proposed approach on average outperform kNN, weighted kNN, probabilistic kNN and two similar algorithms (LMkNN and MLM-kHNN) in terms of the error rate. A simulation shows that kCNN may be useful for estimating posterior probabilities when the class distributions overlap.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it