Age–length relationships in UK harbour seals during a period of population decline
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The abundance of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the UK as a whole has increased over the past 10 years, after a 30% decline during the preceding 10 years and two major viral epidemics. However, population trends vary greatly among regions, with those on the east coast of Scotland and in the Northern Isles experiencing dramatic declines since the early 2000s and populations on the west coast being either stable or increasing. The reasons for these differences in population dynamics are unknown. Determining whether there has been a change in somatic growth among populations can assist in assessing potential causes for abundance declines, as shifts in juvenile growth rates or maximum length at maturity may indicate changes in environmental conditions. Resource limitations are likely to result in slower growth and later age at sexual maturity, whereas causes of acute mortality could have the opposite effect. Here, analysis of the most comprehensive length‐at‐age dataset for UK harbour seals found no evidence for major differences, or changes over time, in asymptotic length or growth parameters from fitted von Bertalanffy growth curves, across all regions, with the exception of one pairwise comparison; males from East Scotland were significantly shorter than males from all other areas by an average of almost 9 cm. However, the power to detect small changes was limited by measurement uncertainty and differences in spatial and temporal sampling effort. Asymptotic lengths at maturity across all regions were slightly lower than published lengths for harbour seal populations in Europe, the Arctic, and Canada, with females being on average 140.5 cm (95% confidence interval 139.4, 141.6 cm) and males 149.4 cm (95% confidence interval 147.8, 151.1 cm) at adulthood. Reliable estimates of changes in growth over time are important for understanding environmental constraints on a population, but knowledge of the underlying drivers of change is essential for the design of robust conservation and mitigation plans.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".