Canadian Retirement Security: A New Reality of Low Returns
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Using a population micro-simulation model, we compare the financial security of Canadian seniors in three scenarios: if Canadian financial markets (1) never experienced the financial crisis of 2008 (i.e. continued on their pre-2008 path); (2) experienced the crisis and recover in five years; or (3) enter a new long-term environment of depressed stock market growth and continued low interest rates. If recovery occurs, we project that the long-term effects of the financial crisis on retirement prospects will be the most felt by older workers now near retirement. If low interest rates continue, however, more severe repercussions await younger workers. Upper-income Canadians are affected the most by continuing low interest rates owing to their relatively greater holding of financial assets. Nevertheless, a long-term low interest rate environment will cause an additional 2.3% of Canadian seniors to experience poverty. Our results underline the vital role of the Canadian social pension program in both protecting poorer Canadian seniors from destitution, and in also shielding the lower, middle and even upper-income Canadian elderly population from financial market risk.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".