Bibliographic record
Abstract
Exchange rates and the choice of the exchange rate regime have critical influence on the real sector performance and the behaviour of several other macroeconomic variables, especially in a high import dependent economy like Nigeria. Exchange rate reforms put in place by the Nigerian monetary authorities have not put the economy on the path of macroeconomic stability, recovery and sustainable development. Arising from this problem, this study investigates the relationship between exchange rate and the performance of Nigeria’s real sector with emphasis on the agricultural, industrial, building and construction, wholesale and retail trade and service sectors over the period of 1961-2017. The study adopts the modified Mundell-Fleming IS-LM framework. Autoregressive Distributed Lag and pairwise Granger Causality techniques were used to examine the relationship between exchange rate regime and real sector output performance. The results of the study reveals a long-term inverse and significant relationship between exchange rate and aggregate real output in regulated exchange rate regime but a long-term direct and significant relationship in the guided deregulated regime. The study therefore recommends that the monetary authorities should re-assess and adequately monitor the existing exchange rate policies in Nigeria with a view to stimulating increased performance of the real sector of the economy. The exchange rate system adopted should be aligned with the overall macroeconomic policy structure and also takes into consideration the integrity of the institutional arrangements on which the country’s development and stability prospects depend. The government should also develop a broad programme of development of domestic industries in both rural and urban areas to enhance domestic production, exports, create employment and reduce poverty. There is also the need to implement coordinated macroeconomic policies that would attract foreign private investment, impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".