Evolution of prodromal Parkinson’s disease and dementia with Lewy bodies: a prospective study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Parkinson's disease has a long prodromal stage with various subclinical motor and non-motor manifestations; however, their evolution in the years before Parkinson's disease is diagnosed is unclear. We traced the evolution of early motor and non-motor manifestations of synucleinopathy from the stage of idiopathic rapid eye movement (REM) sleep behaviour disorder until defined neurodegenerative disease. During 2004-16, we recruited and then annually followed 154 polysomnography-proven patients with idiopathic REM sleep behaviour disorder, of whom 55 phenoconverted to defined parkinsonism or dementia. Longitudinal data on multiple prodromal features, including the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale parts I-III, quantitative motor tests, olfaction, colour vision, cognition, and autonomic functions were gathered annually (average = five follow-up visits, range: 2-12 years). The same measures were also assessed in 102 age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects. By looking backward from the time of dementia or parkinsonism diagnosis, we examined trajectories of each prodromal feature using mixed effect models. Based on analysis, olfactory loss was first to develop, with predicted onset >20 years before phenoconversion. This was followed by impaired colour vision, constipation, and erectile dysfunction, starting 10-16 years prior to phenoconversion. At 7-9 years before phenoconversion, slight urinary dysfunction and subtle cognitive decline could be detected. Among motor symptoms altered handwriting, turning in bed, walking, salivation, speech, and facial expression began to be disrupted starting 7-11 years prior to parkinsonism diagnosis, but remained mild until soon before phenoconversion. Motor examination abnormalities began 5-7 years before phenoconversion, with the alternate tap test having the longest interval (8 years before phenoconversion). Among cardinal motor phenotypes, bradykinesia appeared first, ∼5-6 years prior to phenoconversion, followed by rigidity (Year -3) and tremor (Year -2). With direct prospective evaluation of an idiopathic REM sleep behaviour disorder cohort during phenoconversion, we documented an evolution of prodromal manifestations similar to that predicted by pathological staging models, with predicted prodromal intervals as long as 20 years.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".