International roughness index prediction based on multigranularity fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The effective prediction of pavement performance trends can help in achieving the cost-effective management of pavements over their service life. The international roughness index (IRI) is a widely used pavement performance index, which can be considered as a time-dependent variable in terms of scientific modeling. This research aims to develop an innovative IRI prediction model based on fuzzy-trend time-series forecasting and particle swarm optimization (PSO) techniques. Raw datasets extracted from the Long-Term Pavement Performance database are used for model training, testing, and performance assessment. First, IRI values are divided into different granular spaces, which are considered as the principal factor and subfactors. In addition, the multifactor interval division method is proposed according to the principle of the automatic clustering technique. Next, a second-order fuzzy-trend model and fuzzy-trend relationship classification method are proposed to predict the fuzzy-trend of each factor. Then, the fuzzy-trend states for multiple granular spaces are generated while giving full consideration to various uncertainties. Finally, the PSO technique is used to optimize the performance model while carrying out future IRI forecasting. Comparative experiments are performed using more than 20,000 data items from different regions to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed method outperforms other approaches including the polynomial fitting, autoregressive integrated moving average, and backpropagation neural network methods in terms of the root mean squared error (0.191) and relative error (6.37%).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".