Substantial increase in minimum lake surface temperatures under climate change
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The annual minimum of lake surface water temperature influences ecological and biogeochemical processes, but variability and change in this extreme have not been investigated. Here, we analysed observational data from eight European lakes and investigated the changes in annual minimum surface water temperature. We found that between 1973 and 2014, the annual minimum lake surface temperature has increased at an average rate of + 0.35 °C decade −1 , comparable to the rate of summer average lake surface temperature change during the same period (+ 0.32 °C decade −1 ). Coherent responses to climatic warming are observed between the increase in annual minimum lake surface temperature and the increase in winter air temperature variations. As a result of the rapid warming of annual minimum lake surface temperatures, some of the studied lakes no longer reach important minimum surface temperature thresholds that occur in winter, with complex and significant potential implications for lakes and the ecosystem services that they provide.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it