México y Estados Unidos: Amenazas y oportunidades que surgen con la renegociación del TLCAN
Bibliographic record
Abstract
espanolEl Tratado de Libre Comercio de America del Norte ha creado una de las areas comerciales mas grandes en el mundo. Para Mexico, este tratado, en vigor desde 1994, representa un factor de crecimiento economico y de exportaciones, convirtiendo a Estados Unidos en su principal socio comercial. A raiz del gobierno del presidente Donald Trump, sin embargo, se ha generado un periodo de incertidumbre por la renegociacion y posible eliminacion del referido tratado, decision que pondria en riesgo el auge economico mexicano y afectarian las relaciones entre Mexico, Estados Unidos y Canada. La investigacion analiza el impacto economico del TLCAN, con el objetivo de determinar las amenazas y oportunidades que tendra que asumir Mexico para continuar su crecimiento economico en caso se elimine el tratado. El estudio se desarrolla mediante el metodo de investigacion cualitativa apoyada por datos secundarios. Recurre a la observacion, la revision bibliografica y las entrevistas especializadas, tanto a personalidades del area empresarial como del campo investigativo, para describir y analizar el objeto de estudio. Entre sus principales conclusiones la investigacion establece que la amenaza mas grave de la eliminacion del acuerdo comercial sera la inestabilidad en la economia mexicana, asi como la incertidumbre en el exterior respecto a las relaciones diplomaticas, politicas y comerciales con Estados Unidos, lo que podria generar la salida de inversion extranjera directa del pais y una importante reduccion en las exportaciones EnglishThe North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has created one of the largest commercial areas in the world. For Mexico, this treaty, which has been in effect since 1994, represents an important factor of economic growth and exports, in which the United States is its main trading partner. Since the beginning of the government of President Donald Trump, there has been a period of uncertainty concerning the renegotiation and the possibility of eliminating the treaty, a possibility that has put in risk both the economic boom and relations between Mexico, the United States and Canada. This research analyzes the economic impact of NAFTA, with the objective of determining some of the strategies that Mexico will have to assume to continue its economic growth should the treaty be eliminated. The study is developed using a qualitative method supported by secondary data. It uses observation, bibliographical revision and interviews, both to specialists of the research area in order to describe and analyze the subject of study. We arrive to the conclusion that in the future, if the treaty is affected, it will result in economic instability in Mexico, and tensions in its political and economic relations with the United States which will result in the decline of foreign direct investment in the country and a significant reduction in exports.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".