The Emergence of Renminbi as an International Invoicing Currency and The Spillover
Bibliographic record
Abstract
China has aggressively promoted Renminbi(RMB), or Chinese Yuan, to be the next international currency since 2005. Has China's effort been paid off as RMB gradually emerged as an invoicing currency? What are the spillover effects of the RMB internationalization on the current vehicle currency country, US, and the rest of the world? It's hard to estimate the externality of RMB internationalization because of the endogeneity of the regime change. We adopt a dynamic trading post model developed by (Rey, 2001) and (Devereux & Shi, 2013), that exchange rates, prices, consumption, and trade flows are endogenously determined. Hence we can solve the endogeneity and estimate the quantity of externalities by simulating the international goods and foreign exchange market. We find positive(negative) externality on import and export prices when RMB becomes an invoicing(reserve) currency in international trades. The externality on the real side of the economy, such as, export, import and real exchange rate, is significant only if RMB rises as an international reserve currency. The spillover effect is also sensitive to the relative size of China, which means the timing of RMB internationalization matters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".