Learning Mixtures of Arbitrary Distributions over Large Discrete Domains
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We give an algorithm for learning a mixture of {\em unstructured} distributions. This problem arises in various unsupervised learning scenarios, for example in learning {\em topic models} from a corpus of documents spanning several topics. We show how to learn the constituents of a mixture of $k$ arbitrary distributions over a large discrete domain $[n]=\{1,2,\dots,n\}$ and the mixture weights, using $O(n\polylog n)$ samples. (In the topic-model learning setting, the mixture constituents correspond to the topic distributions.) This task is information-theoretically impossible for $k>1$ under the usual sampling process from a mixture distribution. However, there are situations (such as the above-mentioned topic model case) in which each sample point consists of several observations from the same mixture constituent. This number of observations, which we call the {\em "sampling aperture"}, is a crucial parameter of the problem. We obtain the {\em first} bounds for this mixture-learning problem {\em without imposing any assumptions on the mixture constituents.} We show that efficient learning is possible exactly at the information-theoretically least-possible aperture of $2k-1$. Thus, we achieve near-optimal dependence on $n$ and optimal aperture. While the sample-size required by our algorithm depends exponentially on $k$, we prove that such a dependence is {\em unavoidable} when one considers general mixtures. A sequence of tools contribute to the algorithm, such as concentration results for random matrices, dimension reduction, moment estimations, and sensitivity analysis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it