Reduction in surgical stoma rates in Crohn's disease: a population‐based time trend analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
AIM: Trends in surgical rates for Crohn's disease (CD) in the biological era are controversial. We aim to assess modern trends in the formation rates of surgical stomas. METHOD: Population-based surveillance in the Calgary Health Zone (CHZ), Canada, was conducted between 1 April 2002 and 31 March 2011, using the Discharge Abstract Database to identify adult patients with CD admitted to hospital and treated with surgical stoma formation (n = 545). Annual stoma incidence was calculated by dividing the number of incident stomas by the prevalence of CD in the CHZ. Time trend analysis of the stoma-formation rate was performed, expressed as annual percentage change (APC) with 95% CI. Stoma-formation rates were stratified according to procedure (emergency vs elective) and duration of stoma [temporary (reversed within 2 years of formation) vs permanent]. RESULTS: The overall rate of stoma formation between 2002 and 2011 showed a downwards trend, of a mean of 5.2% (95% CI: -8.5 to -1.8) per year, from a rate of 2.30 stomas/100 person-years (PY) in 2002 to 1.51 stomas/100 PY in 2011. The rate of emergency stoma formation decreased significantly from 2002 to 2011 (mean APC = -9.4%; 95% CI: -15.6 to -2.8), while the rate of elective ostomies essentially showed no change (mean APC = -0.9%; 95% CI: -5.3 to 3.8). The rate of temporary stoma formation decreased significantly, by 4.6% (95% CI: -7.3 to -1.8) per year, while permanent stoma formation was stable (APC = 1.0%; 95% CI: -4.0 to +6.3). CONCLUSION: A reduction in the overall rate of stoma formation in CD has been driven by fewer emergency stomas, although rates of permanent stoma have remained stable.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".