PageRank: An alarming index of probable earthquake occurrence
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Here, we introduce PageRank (PR) in a seismic network as an appropriate alarming clue before the occurrence of the event to be worthwhile in hazard probabilistic evaluation of earthquakes. Studying PR changes of two main shocks in Iran and Italy by means of temporal and spatial windows reveals that their PR values increase drastically before the event, while there is no trend for other considered locations and/or other time intervals. Therefore, the PR value seems to be an appropriate index of a place induction by previous events and its susceptibility for having a new earthquake. Moreover, summing over the PRs of areas close to the Italy event location and tracking this newly defined PR behavior show an increasing trend before the main shock implying that the close regions are influenced and become highly connected before the event as well as the earthquake location itself. It is also indicated that PR behavior is not necessarily correlated to the number of occurring earthquakes and is inherently the result of points connectivity and interactions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".