Minimizing The Misclassification Error Rate Using a Surrogate Convex\n Loss
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We carefully study how well minimizing convex surrogate loss functions,\ncorresponds to minimizing the misclassification error rate for the problem of\nbinary classification with linear predictors. In particular, we show that\namongst all convex surrogate losses, the hinge loss gives essentially the best\npossible bound, of all convex loss functions, for the misclassification error\nrate of the resulting linear predictor in terms of the best possible margin\nerror rate. We also provide lower bounds for specific convex surrogates that\nshow how different commonly used losses qualitatively differ from each other.\n
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it