Long-term climate, vegetation and fire regime change in a managed municipal water supply area, British Columbia, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Post-glacial climate, vegetation and fire history were reconstructed from a sediment record from Begbie Lake, British Columbia, Canada, located in a municipal water supply area servicing > 350,000 people. Watershed managers have identified wildfire as a threat to water supply and seek to understand how vegetation and fire have varied through time with climate. In the cold late-glacial, open Pinus woodlands, periodically disturbed by fire, transitioned to mixed conifer forests subject to high-severity fire. The early Holocene is of interest to watershed managers because climate was warmer and drier than present. During this interval, low streamflow, abundant fire-adapted taxa, elevated background charcoal and regional increases in biomass burning indicate that fire seasons were longer and that fire was an important disturbance mechanism. Climate moistened in the mid Holocene, facilitating canopy closure and decreased fire disturbance. However, surface fires prevailed in Quercus ecosystems, which were expanding locally. Charcoal increased between 6180–2500 cal yr BP as climate further cooled and moistened, likely reflecting human activity and/or increased climate variability. Modern conditions arose within the last few millennia, impacted most recently by European settlement. In combination with paleoclimate modelling, modern management practices and forecast simulations, the Begbie Lake record informs about ecosystem changes within the watershed, yielding insights for management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".