Dynamics between Oil Prices and UAE Effective Exchange Rates: An Empirical Examination
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Utilizing monthly data for 1994-2017, we investigate the dynamic relationship between real oil prices and the real broad effective exchange rate of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Our findings indicate that this relationship experienced a structural change around 2008. That is, for both 1994-2008 and 2008-2017, the series each has a unit root, but they possess a long-run equilibrium relationship only for the latter period with the real effective exchange rate asymmetrically responding to eliminate disequilibrium; i.e., the response is relatively small when disequilibrium is negative and relatively large when disequilibrium is positive. Further evidence indicates that oil prices have directional predictive power for the real exchange rate for the period after but not before the 2008 financial crisis. Accurate directional predictions for 2008-2017 imply symmetric loss, meaning that they are of value to a user who assigns the same loss (cost) to upward and downward moves in the real effective exchange rate. These findings are important to both UAE policymakers in promoting trade and attracting foreign investment and to foreign entities which consider the UAE an attractive environment for investing in various sectors.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".