Are disproportionate losses of eastern breeding Semipalmated Sandpipers ( <i>Calidris pusilla</i> ) driving declines in the upper Bay of Fundy, Canada?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Large numbers of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) use the Bay of Fundy, Canada, as a stopover site during their southbound migration from breeding to wintering grounds. The species exhibits a geographic cline in bill length on the breeding grounds (larger in east). Based on a previous analysis of morphometric traits that detected a small temporal decline in bill length, it has been suggested that observed declines in the Semipalmated Sandpiper population staging in the Bay of Fundy were driven by a disproportionate loss from the eastern breeding population. New data collected in the Bay of Fundy has made it possible to reassess this suggestion. We compared new bill length data from the Bay of Fundy (2009–2014) to historical data (1981–1989, 1997–2007) to examine temporal changes in bill length at this stopover site. We also examined count data at a major roost site from 1981 to 2014 to assess temporal changes in migratory passage. Variation in median passage date is explained best by a combination of year and Arctic climate data. Birds are now migrating through the region later in the season; median passage date has advanced approximately 5 d from 1980s values. Our analyses suggest that while there was a small decline in bill length between the 1980s and early 2000s, it has since reversed and bills are now comparable to historical values. Given this reversal in mean bill length, coupled with population estimates that are still low relative to historical values, there is now little evidence to support the hypothesis that the decline between the 1980s and today in birds passing through the Bay of Fundy is linked to disproportionate losses of eastern breeders. We therefore suggest that population declines may be distributed more broadly across the breeding range of birds that use the Bay of Fundy as a stopover site.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".