Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rates - The Case of Malaysia and Brunei
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study is driven by the motivation to investigate the impacts crude oil price fluctuations on Malaysian and Brunei exchange rates as proxied by RM/USD and BD/USD respectively. Even though there is no specific economic theories that can help explain the interaction between commodity and foreign exchange markets, the study is research-worthy as both Malaysia and Brunei are major oil-exporting countries in South East Asia. This study is considered quite extensive involving 370 data points spanning from January 1988 till October 2018. Using Engle-Granger 2-Step Cointegration Test (1987) as an estimation tool, the empirical results show the presence of long-term equilibrium relationship between the two national currencies and crude oil price. Interestingly, there is also a significant short-run causality between them in both countries. With respect to the short-run dynamics, there is a unidirectional causality running from crude oil price to the two exchange rates. The study also posits that RM is less prone to changes in crude oil price during the period before Asian Debt Crisis in 1997. After the removal of RM peg in June 2005, RM is found to be more sensitive towards changes in crude oil price over short haul. In summary, the significant equilibrium and dynamic relationships between the national currencies and crude oil price are therefore confirmed and perhaps the quotation of crude oil price in USD could be one of the explanations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".