Learn Fast, Forget Slow: Safe Predictive Learning Control for Systems with Unknown and Changing Dynamics Performing Repetitive Tasks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a control method for improved repetitive path following for a ground vehicle that is geared towards long-term operation where the operating conditions can change over time and are initially unknown. We use weighted Bayesian Linear Regression (wBLR) to model the unknown dynamics, and show how this simple model is more accurate in both its estimate of the mean behaviour and model uncertainty than Gaussian Process Regression and generalizes to novel operating conditions with little or no tuning. In addition, wBLR allows us to use fast adaptation and long-term learning in one, unified framework, to adapt quickly to new operating conditions and learn repetitive model errors over time. This comes with the added benefit of lower computational cost, longer look-ahead, and easier optimization when the model is used in a stochastic Model Predictive Controller (MPC). In order to fully capitalize on the long prediction horizons that are possible with this new approach, we use Tube MPC to reduce the growth of predicted uncertainty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiment on a 900\,kg ground robot showing results over 3.0\,km of driving with both physical and artificial changes to the robot's dynamics. All of our experiments are conducted using a stereo camera for localization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".