Building a PECAS Activity Allocation Module: The experience from Caracas
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We applied the PECAS Framework, a spatial economic system for forecasting and policy analysis, to the region of Caracas, Venezuela. In this paper, we describe in 12 steps the elements developed for an Activity Allocation model in this region. A detailed inventory of built space and household characteristics was developed using a population synthesis technique. The model design and implementation reflected informal (slum) housing and social equity (with 20 residential space types), while accounting for the industrial mix of the region. Transport costs for economic interactions were calculated using a TRANUS travel demand model. We also describe the calibration of the model and the application to two policy scenarios: provision of public housing and increasing transit fares. The 12 steps can guide future researchers, specifically listing the data and processes that were applied in this context. The sensitivity tests showed how this type of model can be used to anticipate social equity effects due to policy. Based on the know-how gained, we provide valuable insights for other modelling teams, particularly for applications in developing economies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it