Exports, Terms of Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence from Countries with Different Level of Openness
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper explores the effects of the ratio exports/GDP and the terms of trade on growth among countries with different level of development and openness. These effects vary among subgroups of countries with different openness and per development level. Nonetheless, in general the evidence seems to support the hypothesis stated in this research. In less developed or better endowed for export countries one or both of the explanatory variables mentioned above encourage for economic growth. Specifically, in advanced economies only the ratio exports/GDP is growth promoting when these are open, and have high per capita but small global GDP and/or relative advantages to be growth export-led. In turn, exports or and the terms of trade trends to promote growth in lower middle income countries. Unfortunately, the surprising results came from the poorest countries. They do not are benefited from a more favourable foreign environment. On the contrary, exports are not significant while an improvement in the terms of trade diminishes their growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".