Simulation of control scenarios of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Nghe An Province in Vietnam
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The main objective of this study was to develop various models using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) to simulate the transmission of Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus between farms in Nghe An Province in Vietnam in order to inform the prevention and control of this important disease. Using real data from the household survey, credible parameters for direct/indirect mean contact rates between different farms were estimated. A total of eleven models were developed, including immunization scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitive analysis on how the mean contact rates influenced the results. The immunization scenarios showed that a high proportion of pigs in medium size farms needs to be vaccinated in order to reduce the transmission to pigs in small farms under the Vietnamese pig production system. In order to promote the use of vaccinations, incentives (such as a vaccine subsidy) for medium size farms may be needed. It could be the most cost-effective control and prevention strategy for pig diseases in Vietnam. Our study provides insights on how pig diseases can be spread between pig farms via direct and indirect contact in Nghe An under the various hypothetical scenarios. Our results suggest that medium/large farms may play an important role in the transmission of pig diseases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".